Thursday, May 14, 2009

S&P 500 and overall market action today

Yesterday an analyst friend of mine and I had a conversation after market about how many secondary offerings have been announced from firms across almost every industrial sector in the market. He had counted over $30,000,000,000.00 billion in offereings announced in the last 7 days. That's a lot of stock hitting the market right now! What's funny is $30 billion sounds small now considering the numbers the Treasury and FED throw around these days for bailouts and "stimulus" etc. Citi could buy up in the open market all the secondary offered stock and then the Fed could just hand them another $30 billion in freshly printed dollars under the table Foreinstance? :) Now that's a joke but is it truely that far off of how this market has been suported over the prior 9 weeks? We have begun a much needed pullback in the markets now this week from the mid 900's on S&P and today so far the S&P 500 is up about 7 pts to 892. I'm expecting the retest of 875 to 877 of S&P 500 here over the next few days and then we have to evaluate the markets action at that significant support area. If we break 875 on a closing basis we could go back for a retest of the 50 day moving average line, which is currently at around 851. I'd argue that we should see that level over the coming week or two with the amount of secondary offering supply hitting stocks right as we speak but this market has defied logical strength now since the March 12th bottom. It's been entirely logical that we did get a huge oversold bounce in the markets after 1.5 years of a dramatic downturn, but now you would expect a lasting calm and turn down for a few weeks at least. Stay tuned.

Brian Cook
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